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Alt 04.12.2013, 10:51   #1
Registriert seit: 09/2011
Ort: Sao Vicente, Cabo Verde
Beiträge: 147
Standard Abnormal 2013/2014 season Sao Vicente

Dear readers,

We would hate for you to get disappointed about the wind in Sao Vicente (a Cape Verde island). Normally the time with good wind from mid-October until the end of June is above 95%.

Judging by abnormal Atlantic weather patterns during the past summer and the lack of wind at the beginning of this season, we predict a bad year. So,

please keep in mind that during the 2013/2014 season, the % of time with good wind may be much lower than normal !!

Here's why we predict a bad season:

This season so far (starting mid-October and looking ahead at forecasts till mid-December), we will get dramatically little wind in Sao Vicente!

From past experience, La Nina occurring during the winter is associated with a dip in wind strength.

But this year we do not have La Nina! (nor El Nino). So are there other anomalies that could be associated with the lack of trade wind in the Atlantic? The anomaly this year seems to be the lack of hurricanes (intensity of hurricanes is lowest since 1984 -2013 and was the sixth-least-active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950).

Can we check the theory of association between low hurricane season intensity and lower intensity trade winds? Another recent year with lower than usual hurricane activity was 2009 (hurricane intensity was below average but not as extreme as 2013). So how was the wind during that season?
It was in fact a season with less wind than usual (5 days without wind per month usual versus the usual 1-2 days without wind per month).

So perhaps a summer of low hurricane activity is predictive of a season with less wind than usual.
Of course, we don’t know for sure. Time and rigorous research will tell.

But if it is true, we are in for a bad 2013/2014 season. Judging by the extent of lack of hurricane intensity (more pronounced in 2013 compared to 2009) and earlier start of the period without wind (November, instead of December), if one super-imposes on the 2009/2010 experience, we may be faced with many windless days until the end of March 2014!!
In terms of time with good wind, during normal years this is above 95% for the period mid-October till end June. During the bad season of 2009-2010 this was 83%. During this season, it may be as low as 60%!!!
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