Disappointing wind at KSP Worldtour at Punta Preta: what’s going on?

[ola454]

With five days gone, only one reasonable day of kiting and a dismal forecast for the next days, the Ponta Preta (Cape Verde) leg of the world championships in the wave discipline is forced to cancel the rest of the event.

This place is normally cranking. So what’s going on?

We have a kitesurf center on another Cape Verde island (Sao Vicente) and have been tracking our wind statistics against measurements and forecasts by the world’s expert climatologists.
Our suspicion: it’s because of La Nina – (a global climate pattern that normally only happens every 4-7 years, the opposite of El Nino).

Last season we had strong La Nina conditions running from October into the May 2011. As a result the wind was often disappointing at the beginning of the season (many days of 11-13 knots and even some days below 11 knots during Oct-Feb).

This season we have weak La Nina conditions peaking in October and a forecast of gradually decreasing until March 2012. The wind has indeed been below par (many days with 13-15 knots in November) and has over the last week been gradually creeping up from 15 knots to 21 knots yesterday.

So perhaps a lesson for the organizers of events in the Cape Verde islands: track the long term forecasts for La Nina: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO...SST_table.html.

[ola454]

Sorry!
This link is more clear:
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO...QuickLook.html

[MarcUCB]

Zitat von ola454

With five days gone, only one reasonable day of kiting and a dismal forecast for the next days, the Ponta Preta (Cape Verde) leg of the world championships in the wave discipline is forced to cancel the rest of the event.

This place is normally cranking. So what’s going on?

We have a kitesurf center on another Cape Verde island (Sao Vicente) and have been tracking our wind statistics against measurements and forecasts by the world’s expert climatologists.
Our suspicion: it’s because of La Nina – (a global climate pattern that normally only happens every 4-7 years, the opposite of El Nino).

Last season we had strong La Nina conditions running from October into the May 2011. As a result the wind was often disappointing at the beginning of the season (many days of 11-13 knots and even some days below 11 knots during Oct-Feb).

This season we have weak La Nina conditions peaking in October and a forecast of gradually decreasing until March 2012. The wind has indeed been below par (many days with 13-15 knots in November) and has over the last week been gradually creeping up from 15 knots to 21 knots yesterday.

So perhaps a lesson for the organizers of events in the Cape Verde islands: track the long term forecasts for La Nina: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO...SST_table.html.

I was in Sal only just a few days ago - are you sure about 13 - 15 and more knots?
Most of the days I had felt like 12.

[ola454]

Yes I know of the differences in wind strenght between Sal and Sao Vicente the last days. We were in communication with some of the KSP riders and heard about days with little wind whilst we had a great time in Salamansa with 17 knots. Very frustrating because the islands are not so far from eachother (40min flight).
So I do have my numbers right. The trade wind from the NE accellerates between the two islands of Santo Antao (high mountains) and Sao Vicente (smaller mountains) and as a result, at Salamansa we can benefit from some extra wind, so it can happen to have 12 knots at kitebeach in Sal and 14 knots at Salamansa in Sao Vicente.